ichael Voss must carry forward the lessons learned from Round 23’s win against the Eagles if Carlton are to beat St Kilda and play finals in 2024.
The Blues were sitting pretty after Round 17 with 11 wins and just four losses, but have only won twice since. What was once a club comfortably positioned second on the ladder, is now fighting for its season less than two months later.
Voss himself is fine as a coach. He’s a likeable leader, affable and articulate, and has done a lot of good for the Blues in his three seasons at the club. After all, we’re only a season removed from them falling less than three goals short of a Grand Final appearance.
It’s also extremely plausible to argue that no club has suffered from as many injuries at key moments of a season than the Blues in recent times. That’s long been a gripe of the club’s fans. The detailed breakdown of that is probably better suited to a different forum.
The victory over the Eagles in Round 23 featured a team so ravaged by injury, certainly the most ailed Carlton team in Voss’ tenure, that getting those important four points was impressive, despite the lowly opposition.
That in itself sort of ties in with why the pressure will start to rise on Voss, not only because being at one of the biggest clubs in the league is already a hot seat in itself, but because it exposed perhaps one of the ongoing deficiencies in Voss-led teams.
Without a whole host of stars – most pertinently, Charlie Curnow and Harry McKay – the Blues were forced to make personnel and stylistic changes.
Brodie Kemp was thrown forward out of necessity and immediately looked like the missing third-tall target that would sufficiently act as an extra aerial presence that has been sorely lacking next to the big two. Mobility, good hands and follow-up work, it’s really gone to show just how much Jack Silvagni has been missed.
Naturally, other roles were filled as required. Matt Kennedy had plenty of minutes offensively, there was a healthy reliance on smalls and most importantly, the pressure game had returned in full force. Zac Williams’ move forward was one of Voss’ better moves this season.
But like a lot of coaches of yesteryear, the downfall for the coach and his Carlton team really stems from a loyal attachment to ‘plan A’, at times, to the detriment of the performance.
Against the Eagles, as Nathan Buckley alluded to earlier in the week, it was a fully-functioning team performance that really stood out, as opposed to the heavy reliance on stars the Blues have often been guilty of.
The lack of forward targets meant the Blues had to lower their eyes going inside 50. They looked for leading patterns and pockets of space in attacking 50, and were more willing to embrace the ground-level ball. 20 tackles inside 50 was one of Carlton’s best performances, especially after the previous month of footy had culminated in 23 tackles inside 50 in total.
But, overall, even when they were sitting second on the ladder and a likely flag threat, Voss’ ‘plan A’ always had holes.
Carlton’s preferred style for the season has been to win clearances and get the ball forward. For most of the season, they’ve been a top-five pressure team, particularly around the ball and have been one of the best teams in the league in scoring off of turnovers.
Carlton coach Michael Voss. (Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
Defensively, put simply, it’s Jacob Weitering or bust, hardly a sustainable approach. The 26-year-old has to be All-Australian this season. He has had a phenomenal season in so many ways, with his leadership and direction standing out. He has lost just 11 per cent of his one-on-ones, placing him in the top handful of players.
Of course, Mitch McGovern is vitally important with his intercepting and closing speed on leading players. Nic Newman’s pressure and calmness with ball in hand is great too.
And it’s not like ‘plan A’ started to falter because of all the injuries. This level of medical crisis has come in the last couple of weeks; they’ve been bad for two months.
If we look at the last five weeks in particular, the Blues are averaging five less shots per inside 50 a game, according to WheeloRatings.
Their style is very one-on-one, star reliant in attack. They average the most attacking one-on-ones in the league by far and are second for contested marks on the season. They’re at league average for hitting up leads, as outlined in the aforementioned stats site.
Yet, in the last five weeks, the contested marks have regressed right back to below league average. The opposition is averaging more intercept marks and the style of entries has been awful. Since Round 17, they’ve scored less, been far less efficient and everything has become predictable. Plan A never changed.
But that Eagles game, yes that one match against a bottom-three team, showed a different path forward. As previously mentioned, the midfielders and half-backs were much more willing to lower their eyes going forward. They took 10 marks on a lead, well up from their season average of 6.5.
They weren’t the only ones who could have scored; these contested marks weren’t speculative, hopeful kicks that may have ended well. They were deft performers who made an impression.
As part of the shuffle, the pressure was extremely high; we had previously discussed the tackles inside the 50-number range. Voss’ strategy A, which was based on pressure, had decreased dramatically since Round 17.
Young players were given opportunities against the Eagles, and the midfield unit appeared revitalised. On the day, Weitering collected five interceptions, Newman three, and the newly situated Elijah Hollands—possibly the greatest young player in the Blues—three more interceptions while playing excellent behind the ball.
Voss had to deviate from his plan A out of necessity, which gave the Blues new life. For this reason, Carlton regards the St Kilda match as extremely significant. There won’t be as many people on the inclusion list as there were last week. The Blues won’t enter the game at full strength.
As difficult as it may be for the club’s supporters, Voss’ future and Carlton’s long-term goals aren’t most dependent on the outcome of Sunday’s game.
It would just cover obvious holes if the coach went back to his bash and crash approach, which has been his favourite for a while, and the Blues prevailed. September would see them win only one game.
Even if 2024 isn’t Carlton’s season, it may be a game-changer if its leaders—both on and off the field—can modify their natural styles to match how they handled the West Coast match.
Flexibility and agility are key components of this league. The league’s top coaches are able to establish a variety of tactics by utilising their players’ inherent versatility and a variety of styles. Most people are hiding something.
It appears that Voss may have unintentionally discovered that as well. Before evaluating the player market in the off-season, the Blues truly need it with the team they currently have.
If the former champion Lion is to have a successful career at Carlton, he must seize the chance to refine his strategies. A few believed that 2024 will be their year. Maybe fortune has something else in mind for them.
But one thing is certain—if Voss goes back to his original strategy, Carlton will never achieve meaningful success because pressure will build in one of the AFL’s most desirable seats.
Super Sunday in Round 24 is significant for a number of reasons. For Michael Voss and his Blues, today is really important.
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