The San Diego Padres won Game 3 of the NLDS, gaining a 2-1 series lead over the Los Angeles Dodgers. They’re one win away from an NLCS berth, which seems strange coming from a team that sent Juan Soto away this offseason.
The Padres were the most dominant club in the majors in the second half, and they’ve kept their momentum going by winning four of their first five playoff games. San Diego has an almost perfect ambiance. So far, the sole mood-killer has been Joe Musgrove’s tragic injury.
That injury not only sidelined the Padres’ right-hander for the rest of the postseason, but he will almost definitely miss the entire following season due to Tommy John surgery.
Musgrove’s injury didn’t impact the Padres in the NLDS, but their Game 4 pitching decision shows that they need their right-hander. San Diego is poised to start Dylan Cease on Wednesday, and this move could set the club up for failure.
Mike Shildt unnecessarily setting Padres up for failure with Game 4 pitching decision
Cease is among the finest pitchers in the National League. There’s a reason why the Padres traded for him and made him start the first game of this series. Still, it’s difficult to see how playing him in Game 4 makes any sense.
First and foremost, Cease will be on three days’ rest, which he has never done during his six-year MLB career. Sure, he’s as tough as they come, so injury isn’t an issue, but how productive will he be?
In Game 1 of the series, Cease struggled, surrendering five runs in 3.1 innings, including a three-run home run by Shohei Ohtani. Cease had been resting for over two weeks at that point. How will the right-hander react against the squad that just beat him up?
The Padres have experienced left-hander Martin Perez on their roster, who can eat up innings as a starter, and baseball’s deepest bullpen behind him. Even if Perez is roughed up, the Padres’ powerful offense should be enough to hold off a struggling Dodgers pitching staff.
If the team loses Game 4 of the series, which is the worst-case scenario for starting Perez, they will not be eliminated. They’d have Cease ready for Game 5 after an extra day of rest, and they might be able to get a couple of innings out of Yu Darvish as well. They could even start Darvish, who demolished the Dodgers in Game 2, and have Cease available for relief.
The Padres would like to knock off the Dodgers in Game 4, for a variety of reasons, but this is not an elimination game for them. They are not required to use Cease, a pitcher who has never pitched on three days’ rest before, against a team that has just struck him hard.
The switch from Musgrove to Perez is massive and should not be missed, but Shildt is handling this game as if the Padres are on the ropes when, in fact, the Dodgers are on the verge of elimination. Starting Cease when he’s not at his best is a questionable idea, especially when the Padres need him most.
Cease is an excellent pitcher, and this may easily benefit Shildt; nevertheless, it could also, if not more so, backfire.
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