Down by the River Trent sits the City Ground the home of Nottingham Forest and it would appear as though the club are going to stay.
It’s been an anxious time for Forest fans. There has been much discussion about the Reds moving away from their home, with new sites being discussed.
In the last month, however, there appears to have been a breakthrough and ultimately it now looks like a City Ground stay is on the cards.
But what does that mean financially? We confess we don’t really know the true value of staying on the banks of the River Trent but a football finance expert has exclusively given us the lowdown.
Expert reveals huge benefit of Nottingham Forest staying at the City Ground
Following this genuinely positive news about the City Ground, we simply had to discover the full facts when it came to the perks of remaining at the stadium which is known as home.
With the dust settling on the likelihood of the City Ground remaining the home of Nottingham Forest, we spoke to TBR Football’s finance expert, Adam Williams, and he gave us some positive comments.
He said: “With Forest having acquired the land on which the City Ground sits earlier this month, it looks as though the club will be staying put.
“I’m not hugely up to speed with the thoughts of fans, but I assume they would welcome this given their affinity and emotional connection with the ground.
“At West Ham, we’ve seen that moving to a new stadium can cause a bit of an existential crisis, so Forest supporters will be happy to have avoided that.
“It is not a foregone conclusion that this agreement will lead to the expansion of the City Ground, but that does seem increasingly likely.”
So what does this do for matchday incoming, with Forest keen to establish themselves as a Premier League club that can compete for Europe and for trophies?
Williams continued: “”Moving from a 29,000 to a 40,000-seater stadium would bring in more matchday income and commercial revenue.
“They generated £11.1m through the turnstiles in 2022-23, the last financial year for which data is available.
“A crude calculation based on revenue per fan shows that matchday income would increase to £15.3m.
“In reality, the steep increase in ticket prices in the last two seasons would probably take the figure closer to £20m.
“Then you have to factor in that an expansion of the City Ground would also include the redevelopment of hospitality facilities and so on.
“By the time you’ve done that, I think you’re talking around £25m. So you have a situation whereby increasing capacity by 25 per cent can lead to a more than 150 per cent increase in matchday income.
“And I think that’s a conservative estimate. For context, Elland Road’s capacity is just under 38,000 and they generated £30m in matchday income in the last financial year.”
Once Forest have successfully converted the City Ground into a stadium with more seats and one that has undergone a lick of paint, the chances of sponsorship is likely to be higher from businesses.
Williams believes this could be massive in terms of Forest ensuring they comply with PSR every year.
The expert added: “On top of that, sponsors are more likely to be associated with a shiny new stadium, so you can squeeze more cash out if that way.
“A naming rights deal might be unpopular with fans – and justifiably so, in my view – but that could also bring in £2-3m per season if Forest can make themselves an established Premier League club.
“All this is to say, a redeveloped stadium would be transformative for Forest in terms of their PSR position. It could theoretically add £20m to their transfer/wage budget each season.”
Staying at the City Ground was the only solution
Had Forest left their home for many years, it would have caused a massive backlash at the hierarchy may have struggled to recover.
Evangelos Marinakis has done some amazing things since he came to Forest but some fans simply refuse to warm to him.
That sounds harsh considering his financial backing but in the eyes of some supporters he is constantly fighting to prove himself as an owner.
He won’t be bothered about that – essentially he’s a businessman – but he has shown in recent years that he’s got the club close to his heart.
Had he been the owner to take Forest away from the City Ground – the stadium with the location that is the envy of many- he might have struggled to recover.
It’s fascinating to see just how this could impact Forest for the better and hopefully work can begin on expanding the stadium very soon with things seemingly now settled once and for all.
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