The Toronto Blue Jays could find themselves in quite the pickle this offseason. Their two franchise cornerstones, Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr., are entering the final year of their contracts. Both players are looking for contract extensions, and the Blue Jays would be smart to give them these extensions rather than let them get to free agency at the end of the 2025 season.
But here’s the issue. Toronto is going to be aggressive this offseason, looking to sign free agents and make trades to improve on this year’s last-place finish. They will have a ton of money to spend this offseason, yes, but there are also a lot of holes to fill, and with Bichette and Guerrero Jr. both looking at long-term deals well into the nine-figure range, payroll space could dry up quick.
So, there’s a real chance that Toronto can only afford to extend one of its two homegrown stars. Which begs the question: Who should they prioritize?
Should the Blue Jays prioritize Bo Bichette or Vlad Guerrero Jr.? Making the case for both
There’s a case to be made for both players. Let’s look into it:
Making the case to prioritize Bichette
The first thing to note here is that Bichette plays a premium position. It’s much easier to find a slugging first baseman than it is to find a do-it-all shortstop. He doesn’t provide quite the defensive prowess of somebody like Bobby Witt Jr., but he’s by no means a liability with the glove, grading out as average to above-average at arguably the most difficult position on the field.
Bichette had a down year this year where he slashed .225/.277/.322 with four home runs in 311 at-bats. That’s an extreme outlier, though: He slashed .306/.339/.475 in 2023 and he boasts a .290/.332/.466 line for his career. It’s much more likely that he just experienced a down year amid a frustrating season for Toronto than the idea that he lost all his talent and is no longer a plus hitter.
Plus, that down 2024 might wind up working in the Blue Jays’ favor, as it could mean that Bichette would be cheaper to extend that Guerrero Jr.. Guerrero Jr. is coming off one of the best offensive seasons of his career and is likely to get a massive deal at the top of his market, while Bichette could settle for slightly less while bringing just as much if not more upside.
Making the case to prioritize Guerrero Jr.
The case for Guerrero Jr. is quite simple: He’s the team’s best player, and he’s one of the best offensive players in the game of baseball.
Guerrero Jr. slashed .323/.396/.544 with 33 home runs and 40 doubles this season. He bounced back from a bit of a slow start to make the All-Star team and will likely receive some AL MVP votes. Finding better offensive players than Guerrero Jr., even at first base, is incredibly hard to do in today’s game. There are very few players that are more valuable in the middle of a lineup, especially now with offense down across the league.
If the Blue Jays let Vladdy hit unrestricted free agency, he is likely to head elsewhere, and there’s no way Toronto can replace his production.
Who should they prioritize?
The answer is Guerrero Jr.
He’s simply the most valuable player to the team. Guerrero Jr. should be prioritized over Bichette and, quite frankly, he should be prioritized over any of the free agents that the Blue Jays are pursuing. Inking Guerrero to a 10-year contract would be the dream move for Toronto, and would only take him through his age-35 season.
Ross Atkins shouldn’t ever let Guerrero Jr. suit up in another uniform for as long as he’s in the big leagues. Inking him to a huge extension this offseason would be a good start to that idea.
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